Methodology of assessing individual reliability of unique structures

Sviatoslav Timashev


The paper describes the author’s methodology of quantitative reliability assessment of unique systems that are components of very expensive critical/strategic infrastructures, manufactured in very small series/batches, or even as single, unique structures. It was dubbed “theory of individual structural reliability — TISR”. With the development of the 3D digital technology and digitization that opened the door to creating digital twins in design, the share of unique products is growing non-stop in all branches of contemporary heavy industry and machine-building (rotor excavators, continuous casting plants, drilling rigs), adjacent sectors of industry (ship-building, aircraft building), and construction industry (large span bridges, super high skyscrapers, exhibition pavilions etc.). In this paper the TISR methodology is described for a class of unique and non-renewable objects using as an example a one-time-deployed-when-on-orbit robotic technological complex, designed to serve without interruption for 12–15 years in the near-space environment. The paper is a direct extract from preprint [1], revised and translated into English by its first author. The initial data needed for writing paragraphs 4 and 6 of this paper belongs to Yu. P. Pokhabov, published elsewhere, which made the description of implementing the TISR methodology in the field of unique spacecraft design up to date. The author greatly appreciates and acknowledges the provided input.

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