Russia’s Birth Rate Dynamics Forecasting

Valeriy P. Chichkanov, Aleksandra V. Vasilyeva, Gennadiy P. Bystray, Sergey Aleksandrovich Okhotnikov

Abstract


This article covers contemporary issues of Russia’s population reproduction, their causes and the state policy aimed to overcome the same. The urgency to fulfill the task related to assessment of the most probable future dynamics of Russia’s population birth rate in the context of a low child-woman ratio, and subject to an impact of pronatalist policies implemented by the state, is justified. In order to fulfill the task based on the crude birth rate behavior probability distribution function, a probabilistic assessment of future dynamics of Russia’s population reproduction has been carried out. Based on a modernized method suggested by Hurst, the following two forecasting paths of the crude birth rate dynamics have been built: the first path conforms to the scenario where a value of the crude birth rate is to tend to values between 8–10.5 births/1,000 people (probability is 0.182), in particular, through a negative external impact, the second path is to tend to values between 13–16.5 births/1,000 people (probability — 0.618), in particular, through a positive external impact. Notwithstanding that these scenarios significantly differ from each other, the paths of the crude birth rate dynamics for 2015–2041, corresponding to the reliable prediction time, forecasted according to the abovementioned scenarios, are virtually identical. The analysis of the findings allowed for the conclusion that the state demographic policy is not capable of having a significant impact on the future dynamics of the birth rate, substantially determined by the current situation and conjuncture shifts. These conclusions confirm the view prevailing in academic circles and suggesting that the state regulation of Russia’s demographic situation should be primarily focused on the improvement in health and a rise in the life expectancy of the population.


Keywords


birth rate; state management; demographic waves; probability function; Hurst`s modernized method; forecasting; reliable prediction time

Full Text:

PDF

References


Antonov, A. I. (2004). Prichiny i posledstviya depopulyatsii v Rossii [The reasons and consequences of depopulation in Russia]. Pochemu vymirayut russkie: posledniy shans: sb. st. [Why the Russians are becoming extinct: the last chance: collection of articles]. Edited by A. I. Antonovю Moscow: Eksmo, 35-51.

Antonova, A. I. (1980). Sotsiologiya rozhdayemosti [Birth rate sociology]. Moscow, Statistika [Statistics].

Bystray, G. P., Korshunov, L. A., Lykov, I. A., Nikulina, N. L. & Okhotnikov, S. A. (2010). Metody nelineynoy dinamiki v analize i prognozirovanii ekonomicheskikh sistem regionalnogo urovnya [Nonlinear dynamics methods in the analysis and forecast of the regional level economic systems]. Zhurnal ekonomicheskoy teorii [Journal of economic theory], 3, 103-114.

Federa, E. (1991). Fraktaly: per. s angl. [Fractals: trans. from English]. Moscow: Mir, 254.

Bystray, G. P., Vasilyeva, A. V. & Lykov, I. A. (2012). Prognozirovanie demograficheskogo razvitiya Rossii [Forecasting of the Russia’s demographic development]. Vestnik UrFU [UrFU Bulletin], 6, 61-72. Ekonomika i upravlenie [Economics and management].

Vasilyeva, E. V., Kuklin, A. A. & Leontyeva A. G. (2010). Sotsialnaya zashchita naseleniya, eyo rol v povyshenii kachestva zhizni v regionakh Rossii [Social security of the population, its role in the life quality improvement in regions of Russia]. Uroven zhizni naseleniya Rossii [Living standard of the population in Russian regions], 9, 22-31.

Vasilyeva, Ye. V. (2013). Reyting subektov RF po urovnyu sotsialno-psikhologicheskogo potentsiala [Rating of territorial subjects of

the Russian Federation on the level of social and psychological potential]. Zhurnal ekonomicheskoy teorii [Journal of economic theory], 3, 131-141.

Kuklin, A. A. & Gurban, I. A. (2012). Regionalnyye osobennosti demograficheskoy sostavlyayushchey chelovecheskogo kapitala [Regional features of demographic component of the human capital assets]. Narodonaselenie [Population], 4(58), 035-050.

Gurban, I. A. (2012). Sostoyanie nauchno-issledovatelskogo kapitala subektov Rossiyskoy Federatsii [State of the research capital of the constitute entities of the Russian Federation]. Vestnik Orenburgskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta [Orenburg State University Bulletin], 13(149), 89-96.

Denisova, O. A. & Pykhov, P. A. (2008). Otsenka sovremennogo i perspektivnogo sostoyaniya UrFO s pozitsiy energeticheskoy bezopasnosti [Current and perspective state value of the Ural Federal District from perspective of energy security]. Ekonomika regiona [Economy of region], 4, 52-61.

Agarkov, G. A., Sudakova, A. E. & Naydyonov, A. S. (2013). Ekonomicheskie posledstviya vliyaniya tenevoy ekonomiki na sotsialno-ekonomicheskuyu sferu Uralskogo federalnogo okruga [Economic consequences of the shadow economy’s impact on the socio-economic sphere of the Ural Federal District]. Regionalnaya ekonomika. Teoriya i praktika [Regional economy. Theory and practice], 42, 45-53.

Tatarkin, A. I. & Vasilyeva, A. V. (2015). Otsenka potrebnosti rossiyskogo rynka truda v inostrannoy rabochey sile [Assessment of the Russian labor market’s need for roreign workforce]. Natsionalnyye interesy. Prioritety i bezopasnost [National interests. Priorities and security], 2 (287), 10-21.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.15826/recon.2015.2.017

Copyright (c) 2018 Valeriy P. Chichkanov, Aleksandra V. Vasilyeva, Gennadiy P. Bystray, Sergey Aleksandrovich Okhotnikov

Сertificate of registration media №04-27008 от 28.04.2021
Online ISSN 2412-0731