Sanctions and scenarios of economic development of the Russian Arctic territories (the case of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District)

Ekaterina A. Zakharchuk


Relevance. The sanctions against Russia in 2022 affected almost all areas of the country’s economic activity. The sanctions may have varying effects on different territories of Russia. Mono-sectoral regions specializing in the production of primary raw materials are faced with the highest uncertainty. 

Research objective. The main purpose of the study is to develop and describe scenarios for the economic development of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District under the pressure of sanctions. As part of this task, the impact of restrictions on the development of municipalities in Yamal is assessed, with a special focus on the areas with new hydrocarbon deposits in the Arctic zone.

Data and methods. The study relies on the scenario method and the System of National Accounts to calculate the key indicators of economic development, which are defined as aggregated parameters (gross regional product, investment, tax revenues of the consolidated budget, and employment).

Results. The impact of sanctions on the development of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District is considered through the three scenarios: inertial, negative, and catastrophic. Under the inertial scenario, the key indicators will not change, and the pace of economic development will decrease. Under the negative scenario, investment projects will be put on hold and a limited deterioration in economic indicators will be observed. Under the worst-case scenario, there will be a serious drop in the key indicators, especially investment and employment.

Conclusions. The imposed sanctions prohibiting the supply of high-tech equipment and limiting the supply of natural gas and oil to world markets will not be destructive for Yamal even in the catastrophic scenario. However, these restrictions will seriously limit economic development, gradually worsening the prospects for the development of the Arctic territories and the region’s ability to maintain the current standards of living.


sanctions, economic development, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, development scenarios, System of National Accounts, gross regional product, investment, tax revenues

Full Text:



Akande, D., Akhavan, P.& Bjorge, E. (2021). Economic Sanctions, International Law, and Crimes against Humanity: Venezuela's ICC Referral. American Journal of International Law, 115(3), 493-512. DOI: 10.1017/ajil.2021.20

Allen, S. H. (2005). The Determinants of Economic Sanctions Success and Failure. International Interactions, 31(2), 117-138. DOI: 10.1080/03050620590950097

Arkhipova, V. (2019). Sanctions against Russia: specification and effects for national economic development. Russia and the Pacific, 4(106), 124-143. DOI 10.24411/1026-8804-2019-10058

Bastani, P., Dehghan, Z., Kashfi, S.M., Dorosti, H., Mohammadpour, M. & Mehralian, G. (2022) Challenge of Politico-Economic Sanctions on Pharmaceutical Procurement in Iran: A Qualitative Study. Iranian Journal of Medical Sciences, 47 (2), 152-161. DOI: 10.30476/ijms.2021.89901.2078

Brady, A. (2015). Venezuela: Conditions, issues and U.S. relations Venezuela: Conditions, Issues and U.S. Relations, pp. 1-178

Daoudi, M. S. & Dajani M. S. (1983). Economic Sanctions: Ideals and Experience. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 263.

Dastgerdi, H. G., Yusof, Z. B. & Shahbaz, M. (2018). Nexus between economic sanctions and inflation: a case study in Iran. Applied Economics, 50:49, 5316-5334. DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1486988

Flichy de La Neuville, Thomas. (2021). Lessons from Applying Sanctions and Blockades. Review of Business and Economics Studies, 9(4), 23-31. DOI: 10.26794/2308-944X-2021-9-4-23-31

Ghodsi, M. & Karamelikli, H. (2022). The Impact of Sanctions Imposed by the European Union against Iran on their Bilateral Trade: General versus Targeted Sanctions. World Trade Review, 21(1), 33-58. DOI: 10.1017/S1474745621000318

Kim, H. M. (2013). Determining the Success of Economic Sanctions. Australian Journal of Political Science, 48(1), 85-100, DOI: 10.1080/10361146.2012.731488

Lance, D & Engerman, S. (2003). History Lessons: Sanctions - Neither War nor Peace. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(2), 187-197. DOI: 10.1257/089533003765888502

Larch, M., Shikher, S., Syropoulos, C. & Yotov, Y.V. (2022). Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors. Economic Inquiry, 60(3), 1038-1063. DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13077

Loginov, V.G., Zakharchuk, E.A., Pasynkov, A.F. & Maksimchik, M.A. (2020). Financial aspects of the rotation based work in the arctic region (on the example of the Yamalo-Nenets autonomous district). Creative Economy, 14(12), 3581-3600. DOI: 10.18334/ce.14.12.111378

Lvova, A. O. (2022). Political crisis in Venezuela: economic consequences and possible ways of its resolution. Chronos, 7(2), 42-46. eLIBRARY ID: 48095486

Major, S. (2012). Timing Is Everything: Economic Sanctions, Regime Type, and Domestic Instability. International Interactions, 38(1), 79-110. DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2012.640253

Moghaddasi Kelishomi, A. & Nisticò, R. (2022). Employment effects of economic sanctions in Iran. World Development, 151, № 105760. DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105760

Monaldi, F., Hernández, I.& La Rosa Reyes, J. (2021). The collapse of the Venezuelan oil industry: The role of above-ground risks limiting foreign investment. Resources Policy, 72, № 102116. DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102116

Nelson, R.M. (2021). Venezuela's economic crisis: Issues for Congress. Venezuela: Political, Economic and Humanitarian Issues, 53-69.

Peksen, D. (2019). Autocracies and Economic Sanctions: The Divergent Impact of Authoritarian Regime Type on Sanctions Success. Defence and Peace Economics, 30(3), 253-268. DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1368258

Radzhabovа, Z.K., Yusupova A.T.& Radzhabovа Z.O. (2016). Russia in the sanctions. Fundamental research, 4-1, 213-216.

Seelke, C.R. (2021). Venezuela: Overview of U.S. sanctions. Venezuela: Political, Economic and Humanitarian Issues, 83-87.

Seelke, C.R., Nelson, R.M., Brown, P., Margesson, R. (2021). Venezuela: Background and U.S. relations. Venezuela: Political, Economic and Humanitarian Issues, 1-51.

Semenov, V. (2022). The impact of the US sanctions on the Venezuelan economy. USA and Canada: economics, politics, culture, 1, 53-66. DOI: 10.31857/S2686673022010047

Shida, Y. (2020). Russian business under economic sanctions: is there evidence of regional heterogeneity? Post-Communist Economies, 32:4, 447-467. DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2019.1659567

Simon M. V. (1995). When sanctions can work: Economic sanctions and the theory of moves. International Interactions, 21(3), 203-228. DOI: 10.1080/03050629508434866

Smith, A. (1995). The success and use of economic sanctions. International Interactions, 21(3), 229-245. DOI: 10.1080/03050629508434867

Watkins, E. (2010). General interest: US to monitor energy accords between Iran, Venezuela. Oil and Gas Journal, 108 (41), 46-47.

Zakharchuk, E. A. & Pasynkov, A. F. (2017). Regional Balance Model of Financial Flows through Sectoral Approaches System of National Accounts. Economy of Region, 13(1), 318-330. DOI: 10.17059/2017-1-28

Zakharchuk, E. A. (2019). Spatial Structure of the Formation of Value Added in the Arctic Territories. Economy of Region, 15(2), 391-408. doi 10.17059/2019-2-7


Copyright (c) 2022 Ekaterina A. Zakharchuk

Сertificate of registration media Эл № ФС77-80764 от 28.04.2021
Online ISSN 2412-0731