Impact of Social Spending and Inter-Regional Migration on Employment Rates in Russian Regions
Abstract
Relevance. The employment level in Russia plays a crucial role in the social and economic development of regions. The federal policy of Russia is geared towards bolstering regional employment through targeted social spending and fostering balanced inter-regional migration. Analyzing the contribution of these policies to employment outcomes offers insights for shaping effective regional strategies across the Russian Federation's entities.
Research Objective. This study aims to uncover the key relationships and assess the impact of inter-regional migration and social policy spending on employment dynamics in Russian regions.
Methods and Data. Our research is based on a dataset encompassing 83 Russian regions spanning from 2000 to 2021. The study relies on the data sourced from the Treasury of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Finance, and the Federal State Statistics Service. To model these dynamics, we employ simultaneous quantile regression with bootstrapped standard error.
Results. Inter-regional migration tends to exert a negative influence on regional employment rates in most cases. Public spending on social policy, on the other hand, contributes to employment gains in regions with relatively healthier employment rates, while exhibiting less efficacy in regions dealing with more significant employment challenges. Western regions, characterized by more favorable employment situations and higher economic development, tend to be more attractive to migrants.
Conclusion. Current trends in inter-regional migration demonstrate diminished effectiveness in stimulating regional employment. Social policies generally boost employment in most regions, although there's still potential for improvement in areas with job disparities. Based on our findings, we propose several policy implications for both federal and regional governments to enhance employment policies in Russia.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Abdurakhmanova, G., & Abdurakhmanov, K. (2019). Labor migration of the population and evaluation of supply chain on the labor market. Arkhiv nauchnykh issledovaniy. https://doi.org/10.59160/ijscm.v8i2.3043.
Agovino, M., Garofalo, A., & Cerciello, M. (2019). Do Local Institutions Affect Labour Market Participation? The Italian Case. The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 19 (2), 20180077. https://doi.org/doi:10.1515/bejeap-2018-0077.
Antonelli, M. A., & de Bonis, V. (2017). Social Spending, Welfare and Redistribution: A Comparative Analysis of 22 European Countries. Modern Economy, 08(11), 1291–1313. https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2017.811087.
Azad, N., Serletis, A.& Xu, L. (2021). Covid-19 and monetary–fiscal policy interactions in Canada. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 81, 376-384. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2021.06.009
Balaev, A.I. (2019). The structure of public spending and economic growth in Russia. Russian Journal of Economics, 5 (2), 154–176. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.38705
Balaev, A.I. (2018). The Impact of the structure of budget expenditures on economic growth in Russia. Economic Policy, 13(6), 8–35. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2018-6-8-35
Beetsma, R., & Giuliodori, M. (2011). The Effects of Government Purchases Shocks: Review and Estimates for the EU. Economic Journal, 121(550), F4-F32. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02413.
Bouazza, A. B. (2015). Small and medium enterprises as an effective sector for economic development and employment creation in Algeria. International Journal of Economics, commerce and management, 3(2), 1-16. DOI:
Caponi, V. (2017). Public employment policies and regional unemployment differences. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 63, 1–12. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.11.005.
Carlino, G.A., Inman, R.P. (2013). Local deficits and local jobs: Can US states stabilize their own economies? Journal of Monetary Economics, 60 (5), 517-530. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2251225
Carlino, G., & Inman, R. P. (2016). Fiscal stimulus in economic unions: What role for states? Tax Policy and the Economy, 30(1), 1-50. https://doi.org/10.1086/68559.
Castillo, V., Figal Garone, L., Maffioli, A., & Salazar, L. (2017). The causal effects of regional industrial policies on employment: A synthetic control approach. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 67, 25–41. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2017.08.003.
Chen, C. C. (2014). Entrepreneurship, economic growth, and employment: A case study of Taiwan. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 55, 71-88. https://doi.org/10.15057/26817
Chowdhury, J. R., Parida, Y., & Agarwal, P. (2022). How flood affects rural employment in India: A gender analysis. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 73, 102881. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102881.
Cui, Y., Tani, M., & Nahm, D. (2012). The Determinants of Employment Choice of Rural Migrant Workers in China: SOEs and Non-SOEs. Procedia Economics and Finance, 1, 98–107. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(12)00013-5.
Doroshenko,, S. V. (2022). Assessment of the immigration impact on the employed in small entrepreneurship in the Russian regions. Regional economy and management: electronic scientific journal, 72, 7217. https://eee-region.ru/article/7217/ (In Russian).
Effiom, L. (2019). Cyclicality of social spending in west African countries: evidence from Ghana and Nigeria. Global Journal of Social Sciences, 18 (1), 65-82. https://doi.org/10.4314/gjss.v18i1.6.
Fialová, K., & Mysíková, M. (2009). Labour market participation: the impact of social benefits in the Czech Republic and selected European Countries. Prague Economic Papers, 18(3), 235-250. http://dx.doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.352
Freedman, M. (2015). Place-based programs and the geographic dispersion of employment. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 53, 1–19. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2015.04.002.
Furceri, D., & Zdzienicka, A. (2012). The Effects of Social Spending on Economic Activity: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries*. Fiscal Studies, 33 (1), 129–152. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-5890.2012.00155.x.
Gaidayenko, A.A., Khripacheva, E.V.& Khudov, A.M. (2021). Features of the labor market during the COVID-19 pandemic. Innovacii i investicii, 3, 126-131. (In Russian).
Gil'tman, M.A. (2018). Individual determinants of employment in Russia: regional and sectoral features. Vestnik Tomskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Ekonomika, 43, 88-106 (In Russian). http://dx.doi.org/10.17223/19988648/43/6
Hagedorn, M., Manovskii, I., & Mitman, K. (2015). The impact of unemployment benefit extensions on employment: the 2014 employment miracle? National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w20884. http://www.nber.org/papers/w20884
Howard, G. (2020). The migration accelerator: Labor mobility, housing, and demand. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 12 (4), 147-179. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180363
Kamenskikh, M.& Ivanova, N. (2011). Efficiency of public spending in Russia. Economic policy, 1., 176–192. (In Russian).
Kashepov, A.V., Afonina, K.V.& Golovachev, N.V. (2021). Russian labor market in 2020-2021: unemployment and structural changes. Social'no-trudovye issledovaniya, 2 (43), 33-44. (In Russian). http://dx.doi.org/10.34022/2658-3712-2021-43-2-33-44
Kato, R. R., & Miyamoto, H. (2013). Fiscal stimulus and labor market dynamics in Japan. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 30, 33-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2013.10.001.
Kopiec, P. (2020). Employment prospects and the propagation of fiscal stimulus, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 117, 103941. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2020.103941.
Kozlova, E. I., Titova, O. V., & Novak, M. A. (2015). Migration processes as a factor in the dynamics of labor resources and employment in the region. Modern Economics: Problems and Solutions, 12, 59-68. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.17308/meps.2015.12%2F1341
Mkrtchyan, N. V.& Florinskaya, Y. F. (2020) Why Some People Leave Certain Regions in Favor of Others: Motives Behind Interregional Migration in Russia. Monitoring of Public Opinion: Economic and Social Changes, 5, 130—153. https://doi.org/10.14515/monitoring. 2020.5.1619. (In Russian)
Murín, M. (2016). The Influence of Fiscal Deficit Creation on Economic Growth. Politická Ekonomie, 64 (2), 176–192. https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1062.
Naraidoo, R., Schaling, E., & Tesfaselassie, M. F. (2017). Cross-border spill-overs from fiscal stimulus in a monetary union. Economic Modelling, 65, 95–105. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.05.010.
Oyvat, C.& Onaran, Ö. (2022). The effects of social infrastructure and gender equality on output and employment: The case of South Korea, World Development, 158, 105987. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105987.
Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.671050
Pesaran, M. H., Schuermann, T., & Weiner, S. M. (2004). Modeling regional interdependencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 22(2), 129-162. http://dx.doi.org/10.1198/073500104000000019
Pesaran, M. H., Smith, L. V., & Yamagata, T. (2013). Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure. Journal of Econometrics, 175(2), 94-115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2013.02.001
Rodríguez-Vives, M., & Kezbere, L. (2019). Social spending, a euro area cross-country comparison. Economic Bulletin Articles, 5.
Saviotti, P. P., & Pyka, A. (2004). Economic development, qualitative change and employment creation. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 15 (3), 265-287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2004.02.003
Topilin, A.V.& Maksimova, A.S. (2020). The Role of Migration in the Formation of Regional Labour Markets Amidst the Second Wave of Depopulation in Modern Russia. Voprosy statistiki, 27 (6), 26-36. (In Russian) https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2020-27-6-26-36.
Troyanskaya, M.A. (2021). Population migration: concept, types and significance for territories. Azimuth of Scientific Research: Economics and Administration, 10, 2 (35), 356-360. http://dx.doi.org/10.26140/anie-2021-1002-0077
Truong, D. (2020). Impacts of labor migration on structural change of rural labor in Trieu Son district of Thanh Hoa province in Vietnam. Accounting, 6 (3), 317-326. http://dx.doi.org/10.5267/j.ac.2020.2.003
van der Ploeg, F. (2006). Do Social Policies Harm Employment and Growth? Second-best Effects of Taxes and Benefits on Employment. Tax Policy and Labor Market Performance, 97. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.386766
Veredyuk, O.V. (2010). Determinants of employment in the concept of post-industrial society. Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo universiteta. Ekonomika, 4, 35-42 (In Russian). https://economicsjournal.spbu.ru/article/view/3139
Vermeulen, W., & van Ommeren, J. (2009). Does land use planning shape regional economies? A simultaneous analysis of housing supply, internal migration and local employment growth in the Netherlands. Journal of Housing Economics, 18 (4), 294–310. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2009.09.002.
Volovskaya, N.M.& Plyusina, L.K. (2016). Features of employment in modern Russia. Vestnik NGUEU, 2, 69-81 (In Russian).
Westerman, J. (2018). Unequal involvement, unequal attainment? A theoretical reassessment and empirical analysis of the value of motivation in the labor market. Social Science Research, 76, 169–185. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2018.08.007.
Wu, W. P., Chen, Z. G., & Yang, D. X. (2020). Do internal migrants crowd out employment opportunities for urban locals in China? — Reexamining under the skill stratification. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 537, 122580. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.122580
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15826/recon.2023.9.3.016
Copyright (c) 2023 Rogneda I. Vasilyeva, Darya M. Ampenova
Сertificate of registration media Эл № ФС77-80764 от 28.04.2021
Online ISSN 2412-0731