Spatial configuration of gross regional product of Russian regions: estimation and forecast

Abstract

The relation between Russia’s macroeconomic growth and its regional components for the period of 1990–2013 is considered in the paper. The goal is to estimate this ratio depending on the phase (stage) of development. The hypothesis is that the increase in regional disparities within the post-Soviet period, picked up by standard measures and noted by many authors, is not connected with the systemic removal of regional indicators from each other. The Russian regional space is considered to have specific forms of convergence-divergence, required to be identified. The dynamics of regional space configuration in Russia is considered from a new point of view—as a distribution of mass (volume) of the gross regional product (GRP) over the growth rates. The estimation and forecast of the structural characteristics of GRP mass distribution are made on the basis of the “distribution dynamics” approach. Using this approach, the forecast of the GRP dynamics and structure until 2025 is made. The average annual growth rate is expected to be around 104,5 % by 2025, while differentiation of growth rates significantly increases. The phase of macroeconomic growth over the last 15 years is reflected on its regional components: GRP growth in Russia in general, both before and after the crisis of 2009, creates a denser distribution than in 2009. The general trend of the 2000s and subsequent years is characterized by a certain decline in the differentiation of GRP per capita relating to the main regional space of Russia (74 regions). The results of this research may be useful for regional regulation policy purposes. A significant part of the Russian regions in 2009–2013, in spite of the dominant trend, provides dynamics not worse than that of the number of countries with a developed market. It seems that there is an urgent need to create a special scientific and practical project to study this phenomenon.